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2018 Election Watch

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Beemer View Post
    What's the alternative?
    Voting isn't compulsory yet.

    A growing share of voters between ages 18 and 34 years old said they were undecided, would support a third-party candidate or not vote at all.
    I'm for defending all rights for everyone.


    • #62
      Lots of voters bitch about both parties but when offered an alternative party, they always say they can't win so they continue to vote for the uni party. Self fulfilling prophecy.


      • #63
        As expected:

        The far left is winning the Democratic civil war

        The success of very liberal candidates in primaries across four states is causing a new bout of heartburn among party strategists in Washington, who worry about unelectable activists thwarting their drive for the House majority. But it also reflects a broader leftward lurch among Democrats across the country since President Trump took office.

        Two Pennsylvania socialists just won Democratic primaries.

        Two candidates from the Democratic Socialists of America won Democratic primary races for the Pennsylvania state assembly Tuesday, putting them on track to become the first self-identified socialists in the legislature since the 1930s.

        Democrats see primary land mines, fresh faces and leftward pull in 2018

        The Democratic establishment faced a rare defeat last week at the hands of a progressive upstart, when political newcomer Kara Eastman bested a party favorite in a primary race for a swing district in Nebraska.


        Eastman’s win alarmed some Democrats. Although Green’s group and Our Revolution, a spin-off of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, are backing just a fraction of the hundreds of Democratic candidates running this year, some, like Eastman, are in districts that are prime targets for the party to flip from Republican control.

        Women, progressive Democrats score wave of primary wins. What will that mean for midterms?

        Tuesday's primaries spanned the country and the political spectrum, from more liberal Oregon, to conservative Idaho and Nebraska, to swing-state Pennsylvania, where wins by women were particularly notable.
        Pete (thinks this will really cause a furor if it happens in a senate race)


        • #64

          CA Democrats endorse de León over incumbent Feinstein

          Leaders of the California Democratic Party on Saturday voted overwhelmingly to endorse Kevin de León for the US Senate over incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

          De León, a more liberal, activist voice within the party, recently served as California State Senate president pro tempore and currently represents parts of Los Angeles. Feinstein, the leading Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, is seeking her fifth full term in the Senate.

          Half of California's likely voters think Sen. Dianne Feinstein should retire, poll finds

          As Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein contemplates a 2018 bid for reelection, a new poll has found that 50% of California’s likely voters think she shouldn’t run again.

          Just 43% of likely voters support Feinstein running for a sixth term, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday. The results are similar among all California adults, not just likely voters, with 46% saying she should not run for another term and 41% saying she should run.

          Feinstein, 84, has come under increased pressure from members of California’s left, many of whom were infuriated when earlier this month she called for “patience” with President Trump and refused to back demands for his impeachment.

          Still, the poll found that Feinstein remains popular. More than half of likely voters — 54% — approve of the job she’s doing, compared with 38% who disapprove.
          First, for background, California is a "top-two primary" state, meaning that parties are not guaranteed a candidate, and the top two candidates in the primaries get to run, regardless of party affiliation. So in this case, both Feinstein and her opponent DeLeon are Democrats.

          The plus side of this is that (in theory) you don't get lame-duck elections where a California Republican gets stomped by a Democrat every year. The negative is that (in practice) the winning candidate among two of the same party is often chosen by the other party's voters.

          So in the end, none of this matters. Feinstein is still polling +20 to +36 over DeLeon (depending on the polls) and is refusing to debate him or otherwise acknowledge his existence. Part of the reason she has such a big lead in the polls is that California is a big state and it's very expensive and difficult to reach out to all those voters. Part of the reason is that as a 26-year senator, she is well known to voters and has high name recognition. But mostly it's the fact that she, as the less liberal option, enjoys the support of Republicans in the state as well as mainstream Democrats.

          This is instructive. The Democratic party has recently become enamored with hard left candidates, and these people generally cannot win statewide elections, just as Kevin DeLeon can't.

          Pete (figures it's time to start updating this thread daily)


          • #65

            CNN Poll: Democratic advantage grows in race for Congress

            Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Tuesday. The blue lead has increased slightly from eight percentage points in June of this year to an 11 percentage point difference in the most recent poll.

            Despite Democrats' advantage on that measure, a plurality (48%) in the same poll believe Republicans will maintain control of Congress after the election, compared with 40% who believe Democrats will gain control.
            Pete (has to check some individual polls to see where we stand overall)


            • #66
              Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post

              Pete (has to check some individual polls to see where we stand overall)
              Generic Democrats always sound good. The problem is once they pick the specific people. Best case scenario we need Dems to pick good candidates for Congress so we can at least have gridlock.
              "Democracy is a form of worship. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses." H.L. Mencken


              • #67
                Originally posted by Mr. Raceboy View Post
                Generic Democrats always sound good. The problem is once they pick the specific people. Best case scenario we need Dems to pick good candidates for Congress so we can at least have gridlock.
                I think that turnout for the Dems will be high in 2018 and they will overperform. Too bad the map doesn't help them.

                Pete (expects at least partial gridlock)


                • #68
                  Gridlock! Woot!
                  "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." –Mark Twain


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post
                    I think that turnout for the Dems will be high in 2018 and they will overperform. Too bad the map doesn't help them.
                    When have the Dems ever turned in force for a midterm election?

                    Hell, they didn't even turn out in 2016.
                    "I guess I just hate the fact there is public property at all." - Mr. Raceboy.


                    • #70
                      Gridlock! Woot!

                      It's pretty sad that gridlock is the best we can hope for.
                      "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." –Mark Twain


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Jared View Post
                        Gridlock! Woot!

                        It's pretty sad that gridlock is the best we can hope for.
                        Gridlock is always the best we can hope for.

                        Pete (thinks that in the absence of gridlock, politicians do things)


                        • #72

                          Minnesota Democrats Targeted in Ads Citing Allegations Against Keith Ellison

                          A conservative super PAC launched an ad campaign on Monday that uses domestic abuse allegations against Representative Keith Ellison, the Democratic nominee for attorney general in Minnesota, to attack other members of his party running for office in the state.

                          The ad, titled “Ashamed,” has been tailored to target several Democrats running for the House of Representatives and chastises them for not calling on Mr. Ellison, who is also the deputy chairman of the Democratic National Committee, to drop out of the race.

                          “Joe Radinovich is standing by Keith Ellison,” says one version of the ad, edited to focus on Mr. Radinovich, a former state representative running in Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District. “Backing Ellison instead of believing his victim? Joe Radinovich should be ashamed.”
                          I post this here because it has potential to broaden in scope. Keith Ellison is a major player in the Democratic party, and narrowly lost the DNC chair position to establishment Democrat Tom Perez last year, after which Perez ousted Ellison and Bernie Sanders supporters from the DNC, causing further dissent in the party: As an olive branch, Perez took Ellison as his "deputy chairman," a position with little or no meaning other than symbolically trying to appease the Sanders/Ellison branch of the party.

                          So now Ellison, ostensibly the #2 man in the Democratic party, is himself the target of the #metoo movement, accused of domestic violence by an ex-girlfriend (actually, by her son, though she has backed him up) and the hardcore left is rising to his defense, because he's their guy. The hypocrisy of this isn't lost on anyone, including most notably Republicans, who are exploiting it in Minnesota already. But he's considered a "co-chairman" of the Democratic party, and it's only a matter of time before the Republicans latch on to that.

                          For Tom Perez, this is an impossible situation. Privately, I'm sure he'd just love it if Keith Ellison was disgraced into oblivion and never challenged him again, but if he even hints at such a motive, the Hillary/Sanders rift will blow wide open. On the other hand, his failure to aggressively pursue the allegations against Ellison not only provide fodder for the Republicans, but also risks alienating some of the more consistent Democrats, particularly women who see a man covering for another man right in the party that's supposed to be against such things. So for now, Perez is just playing dumb and not really saying anything:


                          Democrats avoid abuse allegations against party leader

                          DNC Chairman Tom Perez addressed the situation directly only when pressed by reporters as he campaigned Wednesday in Georgia.

                          The DNC boss said he takes “very seriously” any accusation of domestic abuse, but downplayed the political fallout.

                          “Democrats have been winning everywhere,” Perez said. “That, I think, continues.”
                          For his part, Keith Ellison keeps making it worse. He has categorically denied the allegations, which is a really bad position to take if the alleged video is ever released.

                          And of course, politics is politics, so many of Ellison's Democratic enemies are pouncing upon the story, including the people he recently beat in a primary to run for Minnesota Attorney general, one of whom has called for a police investigation.

                          If that video surfaces between now and election day, all bets are off as to how much this hurts Democrats.

                          Pete (first heard about this on the radio this morning, but it's about a week-old story)
                          Last edited by Plezercruz; 08-21-2018, 10:35 AM.


                          • #73
                            Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last?


                            Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last?

                            Growth in this sector is occurring at the fastest rate since 1984.

                            Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns and rural areas that are strong supporters of President Trump ahead of November's midterm elections.

                            Jobs in goods-producing industries — mining, construction and manufacturing — grew 3.3 percent in the year preceding July, the best rate since 1984, according to a Washington Post analysis.

                            Blue-collar jobs, long a small and shrinking part of the U.S. economy, are now growing at a faster clip than those in the nation's much larger service economy. Many factors collided to produce the blue-collar boom. Some are linked to short-term boom-and-bust cycles, but others may endure.

                            The rapid hiring in blue-collar sectors is delivering benefits to areas that turned out heavily for Trump in the 2016 election, according to the Brookings Institution, a shift from earlier in this expansion, when large and midsize cities experienced most of the gains.
                            I post this because everyone, myself included, is expecting huge gains for the Democrats in November. But, just as I did in 2016, I'm hedging. If the Republicans survive, this might be why.

                            We know two things about blue collar workers in 2016. First, we know that blue-collar workers swung heavily and unexpectedly for Trump, in part because lifelong Democrat workers simply didn't show up to vote. Second, we know that for whatever reason, polling summarily failed to notice that it was going to happen. They simply weren't able to reach this voting bloc.

                            2018 is being billed as the referendum on Trump, and if that's the main issue, the Democrats will probably win big. But amid the turmoil and preposterousness emanating from the White House these days, one simple data point is being overlooked: America is really doing quite well.

                            For the Republicans to do well in 2018, the rural and small town workers who voted Trump into office in 2016 have to turn out, and they probably have to bring those Democrat friends who didn't vote in 2016 with them to vote for Trump. That's a real longshot, but it's not impossible.

                            The blue wave we're expecting is fueled by activists, but regular people outnumber activists about 4 to 1. They typically don't turn out in midterm election years. If they do, the Republicans actually have a chance.

                            Pete (isn't holding his breath)


                            • #74
                              If polling is to be believed, Ted Cruz is in real trouble in Texas:

                              How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In?

                              A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue? Normally, this would be the point where we lecture everyone about the dangers of putting too much stock in one poll. But this poll wasn’t even much of an outlier — it came on the heels of a few others that also show O’Rourke within a few points of Cruz. That’s an awfully close race for a state that President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. Is it time to start betting on a Democrat in Texas?

                              Pete (wonders if we'll actually see a Democratic senator from Texas)


                              • #75
                                Why do both of those names sound like they were invented by a "multi-ethnic name generator"?
                                "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." –Mark Twain