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Election watch: 2020 Edition

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  • Election watch: 2020 Edition

    My election watch 2018 thread seems to have died in the upgrade, but 2020 appears alive and well. Let's look ahead following the last election.

    I'll start of with the Presidential race and what we've learned. Here are a few things to note:

    1. The "Trump Effect" is not fleeting.

    Count me among the surprised. I thought that 2016 was a one-off event with the electorate skewed more by Democratic infighting than by any real support for Trump, and I still maintain that in 2016 that was largely true. 2018 has shown us that Trump has coattails, and that he can swing elections by going to bat for Republicans. With one notable exception (Joe Manchin in West Virginia) every Republican Senator who had Trump campaign for him in 2018 won reelection, as did several challengers who embraced him. Those who rejected Trump to try to curry favor with moderates lost. Trump has real support, and in 2018 we saw it measured objectively by counting votes.

    2. There may no longer be any moderates.

    I've been saying this for some time now, but 2018 reinforces it. The idea that if you "push to the middle" you will get swing voters and moderates is a staple of political analysis, but in the past few elections it's been turned on its head. Successful candidates have motivated their bases, almost to a fever pitch, and eschewed the common ground, and have won by turning out more zealots than the other side.

    3. Party lines are shifting

    Trump has upset the proverbial apple cart, and the apples are being resorted in new ways. Demographics that used to identify with Democrats are moving to the Republicans. These include blue collar workers, uneducated Americans, poorer white people, union laborers, and surprisingly, old people. He's given away some demographics too, though, most notably well educated white people, suburbanites, and well off minorities.

    In a lot of ways, this was inevitable. Blue collar workers typically love their guns, so they've been straddling the Republican/Democrat divide for decades. Three elections ago, the Democrats were enjoying a 7-point lead with voters 65 and over, but Trump won them 53% to 45% in 2016 and they voted 57% for Republicans in 2018 (although, it should be noted that far more red states than blue states were at play in the senate this year, so take that with a grain of salt).

    I'm not sure how this settles out. I already don't recognize the Republican party any more. I suspect when the dust settles and people realign themselves, I won't recognize the Democrats either.

    4. The Republicans lost ground in 2018 where they gained in 2016

    This is probably the biggest takeaway from 2018. Trump shocked everyone and won in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Republicans took a beating in those three states in 2018. If they can't get them back in two years, it'll be tough to imagine where they'd get the electoral votes to replace them.

    Pete (was going to move on to house and senate, but needs to get some work done, so maybe later)

  • #2
    Michelle Obama at 14/1?

    No way.
    "I guess I just hate the fact there is public property at all." - Mr. Raceboy.

    Comment


    • #3
      Tim Kaine at 11-1 is the really crazy one. When's the last time a losing VP candidate sniffed the Presidency?

      Pete (thinks Michelle has a better chance at it)

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post
        Don't tell the gamblers she's not running. She's the favorite among all Democrats!
        I hear the Indian Casino is giving the best odds.
        "Democracy is a form of worship. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses." H.L. Mencken

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Mr. Raceboy View Post
          I hear the Indian Casino is giving the best odds.
          They like their own, even when... adopted?
          They speak in bulletpointese leftist nutjob drivel. It doesn't matter. Nothing is as great a motivator as the chance to truly be free.
          -Mr. Raceboy

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          • #6
            President Trump today said he envisions Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a possible opponent in the 2020 presidential race.
            http://abc7chicago.com/news/trump-hi...nent-/1930020/
            I'm for defending all rights for everyone.

            Comment


            • #7
              Now's the time prospective presidential candidates start taking the subtle but crucial behind-the-scenes steps that get them noticed by the political intelligentsia, and Sen. Kamala Harris is quietly following the script.
              http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/poli...149309374.html
              I'm for defending all rights for everyone.

              Comment


              • #8
                The real question in my mind is whether any Republicans will be lining up to take on Trump.

                Pete (is fairly sure the Democrats will sign up in large numbers)

                Comment


                • #9
                  LOS ANGELES -- Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is not opposed to running for the nation's highest office, he said Wednesday.

                  "I think it's a real possibility," he said in an interview with GQ, when asked if he would ever run for president of the United States.
                  http://abc7chicago.com/entertainment...house/1979721/

                  President Camacho, here we come...
                  I'm for defending all rights for everyone.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I still wish I would see C Rice on this list.
                    “Two roads diverged in a wood and I – I took the one less travelled by.” -Robert Frost

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Don't count out Oprah.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The list is endless now. Americans have made it clear that they'll put any idiot in that office.
                        I'm for defending all rights for everyone.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          For his recent GQ profile, writer Katie Wheeler, perhaps offhandedly, asked the former The Rock if he’d ever be interested in running for president. The ever-diplomatic (see?) Johnson issued what Washington insiders call a non-denial denial, sparking a grassroots groundswell of support for his hypothetical candidacy that saw the master of the People’s Elbow easily outpolling Donald Trump in an equally hypothetical Trump-Johnson 2020 showdown. And not just internet polls, but, as Johnson reported smilingly, those “on real news channels.”
                          http://www.avclub.com/article/dwayne...may-hav-255624
                          https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/a...president.html

                          Make it stop. Someone, please make it stop.
                          I'm for defending all rights for everyone.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I'm wondering who will be President in 2020. It might be Trump. It might be Pence.

                            Pete (thinks there's a non-negligible chance that it might be Paul Ryan)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The chance of Paul Ryan becoming president before 2020 is measurable now.
                              I'm for defending all rights for everyone.

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