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Election watch: 2020 Edition

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  • Originally posted by dusty View Post

    What dominates or doesn’t dominate the conversation is not the point. The question wasn’t what dominates the conversations here, the question is whether you should have known Steve’s position on abortion already.

    Raceboy’s criticism of you in this thread, and Jesse’s as well, is on point. I’ve described similar criticism as you often give appearance that, although you are active in conversations, it’s like you nevertheless don’t pay enough attention to the details of the conversation and the points of the others putters with which you engage. It’s pretty apparent, putters with pretty different political and ideological outlooks have noticed.

    If you had had been paying more attention, you surely would have known Steve’s position on abortion before you asked him incredulously how you were supposed to know what it was.
    Yeah, but by that same token, wow are we ever surprised with Dan's (hfm's) positions lately. We thought we had him pinned down and along he comes with positions we'd never have expected 5 years ago!

    Pete (thinks it doesn't hurt to recheck people's positions from time to time, and doesn't think it's an awful thing to change your mind either)

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post

      Yeah, but by that same token, wow are we ever surprised with Dan's (hfm's) positions lately. We thought we had him pinned down and along he comes with positions we'd never have expected 5 years ago!

      Pete (thinks it doesn't hurt to recheck people's positions from time to time, and doesn't think it's an awful thing to change your mind either)
      He went from a Democratic centrist/fascist (see 2016 thread I linked in the derailed electoral college thread),to a Trumper (and I am speculating he will be pro GOP for awhile), which is an example of the effects you’ve been talking about as the Dems move more socialist left. It also confirms the (half-silly) adage of Robert Anton Wilson, that over twenty years a typical person goes from liberal to conservative, without changing a single idea.

      Many putters may react to skooly rather differently if he adopted more of a penchant to say straightforward simple honest things like “I forgot your positions” or “I’m just checking in since it’s been some time” or even “ I just feel like talking about it again, maybe I can change some minds”

      instead of “I find my libertarian friends oddly silent about (anything other than their guns)”
      or “excuuuse me, but I’m supposed to assume your position..?!”
      or any of the other number of things which set people off against him.

      I hope this doesn’t appear as piling on by me. I recognize it may well be. Actually, I’m trying to translate. I’d just like there to be less animosity in general. Steve can’t be reasoned with on the point but maybe skooly still can. He should at least recognize how his style and approach here is really sparking the same frustrating and conversation-destabilizing lightning rods that he complains about when Steve does it.

      dusty (agrees with Pete and not surprisingly isn’t quarreling with Pete)
      For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
      If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

      "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

      Comment


      • Well, to your point, I have pretty much come to accept that skooly thinks that most of the libertarians on this site are actually conservatives in libertarian clothing, so I don't think this is new or unexpected from him. He's been pointing out libertarian inconsistencies for some time, which some of us have had difficulty deflecting with a solid libertarian position.

        For example, he likes to probe my relatively hawkish view of foreign policy (for a libertarian, at least) as a key difference between me and the mainstream libertarian, the majority of whom are outright isolationists in their foreign policy positions. I like to think that my foreign policy isn't quite as hawkish as the average Republican/conservative, but sometimes it is.

        There might be some disconnect between skooly's rhetoric and reality, for example he is fond of employing "I don't understand..." in the sense of the rhetorical device which means "I know exactly what you're really up to!" Similarly when he poses a question of whether we're really libertarians, I don't believe he's actually asking us, but rather telling us that he thinks we're conservatives and we should just admit it already. Understanding this, I don't really have the same difficulty with his posts that you guys seem to.

        Pete (can look a lot like a conservative to people who are very liberal, and that's fine with him)

        Comment


        • Skooly lives in a binary world. If it isn't a Democrat it's a Trumper. The reason I always call skooly dishonest is because he only pretends to be engaging people here in conversation. In fact, he's always playing lawyer and simply arguing for his client's, meaning his own, position. Just like a lawyer arguing for a client, right or wrong or any objective truth is irrelevant to skooly. Not for one single second does he even remotely consider what anyone else is saying unless he can use the words to play the victim. It's all just bullshit and theatrics with that guy.

          On top of that, he has the chustzpah to pretend that isn't the case and that he hasn't infuriated key posters here to the point where they simply don't post anymore.

          He's not an idiot. He knows exactly what he's doing. So you tell me what that makes the guy?

          I may be crass and I can definitely be an asshole, but I will always honestly consider your position if you make a good argument. Big difference.
          "Democracy is a form of worship. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses." H.L. Mencken

          Comment


          • skooly calling libertarians secret conservatives, and libertarians angrily denying it, is not a good conversation. It goes nowhere. Just like Steve and others repeatedly calling skooly a total gun abolitionist, and him denying that.

            Its all variation of the fallacy of arguing against the straw man, and weve been doing it far too often for far too long here. Ive done it too but Ive come to recognize how harmful it is to conversation and so Ive been trying to keep that particular tactic in check. It also often tends to take the conversation quickly into needlessly inflammatory directions.

            you know what supports good conversation? Listening to what others say they believe, accepting that that is what they believe, and then if you believe otherwise, explain what you believe and why you believe it. Then go on each describing the reasons and the relative merits of the reasons on either side. It starts by treating your opponent with at least the respect that they have the agency to have arrived at and to hold their positions, instead of just using them as a stand-in for the imagined stereotypical opponent.

            i would go so far as to say that even if you are 100% convinced a poster is lying about their positions, you should still usually address them as if they really believed what they said they believe. You can say it's a hypocritical belief, self-contradictory, etc., but the conversation goes off rails when it turns into "Your lying! I KNOW what YOU really believe."
            For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
            If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

            "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post
              Understanding this, I don't really have the same difficulty with his posts that you guys seem to.
              so here I go being argumentative. And nitpicky even.

              Please recall, you did have a problem with skooly's post, you expressed it, and then HFM told you to leave skooly and Steve alone because their vitriol was good for conversation. My entire tirade in the electoral college thread since then, and now bleed-over convo here, has been largely about arguing that issue and question.

              dusty (confirms again his focus on the issue raised by HFMs comment, but can't fully argue about the merits of criticizing skooly vs leaving skooly alone, without actually advancing skooly criticism in the process)
              For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
              If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

              "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

              Comment


              • I think this thread needs some refocusing at this point, so I'm going to do an absurdly early Swing State spotlight.

                According to 270toWin.com's default map, there are only 5 swing states at the moment. In order from most electoral votes to the least:

                Florida (29):
                America's retirement home is once again shaping up to be the biggest battleground on the road to the White House. Unfortunately for Trump, a number of factors are not going his way.

                First, there is an influx of very angry Puerto Ricans who blame his administration for poor response to hurricane damage of their home island. Puerto Ricans are US citizens and instantly become eligible to vote in states that they move to. To the extent Democrats can mobilize, register, and turn out these voters, they might make the state a lot less close than it has been in the past.

                Second, felons are now eligible to vote in Florida. Republicans tried to block the reinstatement of their voting rights, and are even now trying to block their ability to actually register to vote, so this vote will also skew heavily Democratic, to the extent they are actually allowed to vote and actually turn out.

                Third, in the wake of a couple of horrific shooting sprees in the state, young people are highly motivated to register and vote, and these will be overwhelmingly Democratic votes. No demographic is more likely to disappoint on election day, but there is reason to believe they might actually show up in 2020.

                There are a few points of good news for the President though:

                Republicans are building a machine in Florida: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/poli...321-story.html
                Republicans swept Florida in 2018, and they're already building a political machine to elect Trump in 2020. Trump stuck his neck out for Governor Ron DeSantis, and he appears to be returning the favor. While the Democrats must waste their time with contentious primaries, the Republicans hold fundraisers, recruitment events, and registration drives. They're at least a year ahead of the Democrats in the state, possibly more.

                Ron DeSantis, Trump's ally in Florida, is incredibly popular. https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-...ReleaseID=2605
                Ron DeSantis has a nearly 3-1 favorable to unfavorable ration in recent Quinnepiac polling (which itself tends to skew Democratic, by my own totally unscientific observations). Ordinarily such a popular figure wouldn't risk campaigning with an unpopular President, but DeSantis owes Trump, and both of them and most Florida Republicans know it. The two will be seen campaigning together so much this summer you'll probably think DeSantis is the running mate.

                Floridians hate most of the Democratic candidates: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/poli...314-story.html
                Early polling shows that Joe Biden is the overwhelming favorite of Florida Democrats and Florida Democrats at large, and he beats Trump in head to head polling by 15 points. However, Trump actually polls ahead of virtually all other Democratic candidates, most notably Bernie Sanders, who can only muster 6% support in the state among Florida Democrats and loses to Trump by a significant margin in early polling. If Biden isn't the candidate, Trump might win Florida.

                Pete (if he had to project right now, would say that the polling is accurate and Trump beats every Democratic candidate except Biden in Florida)
                A slim majority of Florida voters say they wont vote for President Trump in 2020, according to a new poll but many prominent Democratic candidates are just as underwater in their favorability.
                Last edited by Plezercruz; 04-19-2019, 09:22 AM.

                Comment


                • One minor item I've been pondering the last couple of weeks:

                  The release of the Mueller Report has caused some pretty serious problems for Democratic hopefuls with respect to the timing of their candidacy announcements. We are, right now, in the "eleventh hour" for candidates to announce and introduce themselves, but nobody wants to be overshadowed by the Mueller Report and the aftermath of it. That would be a disaster, because the primary goal of your declaration is to announce that you are open for fundraising, and the first week of fundraising is critical. So candidates are in limbo if they haven't already declared...they have to wait.

                  So for all the candidates who still have not declared, the Mueller Report hoopla represents 2-3 lost weeks of press, campaigning, and most importantly, fund raising. The biggest name in the group of people hurt by the timing of the Mueller Report is, of course, Joe Biden, whom many had speculated would reveal himself last week, but who now has to wait out the Mueller Report to actually do so. The conventional wisdom says he's already two months late, and he's losing somewhere on the order of $5M a month on the other candidates, who are hitting up largely the same list of donors he will want to when he enters. 3 more weeks of lost fundraising time is 3 more weeks of someone else potentially taking money he could have.

                  There are other undeclared candidates waiting to declare, like Bill De Blasio and Howard Shulz. Unlike Biden, we don't know for sure if they will run, and unlike Biden, these guys have enough money to potentially fund themselves for a while, but the clock is ticking on the debate stage, which is just two months away, and requires fundraising goals and poll numbers to get a candidate on the main stage. Other potential candidates, like Eric Holder and Steve Bullock, have expressed a desire to run but curiously have not made a move. Their time is running out.

                  Pete (thinks all of these guys better hope there's on other really big news following the Mueller Report's release)

                  Comment


                  • Biden announced his intent to run for president today.

                    I pointed out to my rabid-Democrat-Fanboy brother in law the irony of the party of the poor, downtrodden and fiscal liberals of running a candidate who is an old money multi-millionaire.

                    no response as yet.
                    "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Jared View Post
                      Biden announced his intent to run for president today.

                      I pointed out to my rabid-Democrat-Fanboy brother in law the irony of the party of the poor, downtrodden and fiscal liberals of running a candidate who is an old money multi-millionaire.

                      no response as yet.
                      Keyword: old. ha!
                      For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
                      If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

                      "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

                      Comment


                      • He's an old white cis gendered millionaire! Good luck with that Dems! LOL
                        "Democracy is a form of worship. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses." H.L. Mencken

                        Comment


                        • He's also the only guy in the Democratic field right now that I would see as a major improvement over Trump.

                          Pete (hates on crazy socialists)

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post
                            He's also the only guy in the Democratic field right now that I would see as a major improvement over Trump.

                            Pete (hates on crazy socialists)
                            I remember a time, after Bill Clinton, when many Democrats thought their party was fiscally responsible. There were even "Annoy a Conservative" bumper stickers about balancing the budget.

                            Jesse (is shocked at how quickly the Democrats went full socialist)
                            DEEZ NUTS FOR PRESIDENT!!

                            Comment


                            • I'd love to see Joe Biden win the nomination just for the shit show of an election contest against Trump, but the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is probably too stupid to vote for him.

                              skooly (knows Trumps base is stupid enough to reelect him)
                              "I guess I just hate the fact there is public property at all." - Mr. Raceboy.

                              Comment


                              • OK. I admit it. I'm surprised:

                                https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48294930

                                Bill de Blasio: New York City mayor enters presidential race

                                New York Mayor Bill de Blasio has announced his run for the presidency, the latest Democrat to enter the race.

                                In a video released on Thursday, Mr de Blasio said it was "time we put working people first" and that President Donald Trump "must be stopped".

                                "I'm a New Yorker, I've known Trump's a bully for a long time," he added. "I know how to take him on."

                                He is expected to visit Iowa and South Carolina to begin campaigning this weekend.

                                Mr de Blasio is the 24th person to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
                                I can't honestly say I know where de Blasio fits into this picture, because I had so thoroughly dismissed him as a potential candidate.

                                My initial inclination is that as a big-name old white man with mainstream liberal positions, his entry into the race hurts Joe Biden the most. De Blasio will split a voter bloc which, up until now, has had Biden as their only candidate. If he can split Biden's 35% support evenly, and nothing else changes, you'll start hearing articles about how Bernie Sanders is leading in the polls, even if Sanders gains no new support. That's significant because most Americans can't or won't do math, and their only takeaway is that Bernie is "the guy."

                                We'll know for sure after a few more polls come out what effect de Blasio has on this race. I can't wait to see them.




                                Pete (never saw this coming)

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