Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Election watch: 2020 Edition

Collapse
This is a sticky topic.
X
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • I’m betting he doesn’t dent Biden — he’s got name recognition, but limited experience.
    They speak in bulletpointese leftist nutjob drivel. It doesn't matter. Nothing is as great a motivator as the chance to truly be free.
    -Mr. Raceboy

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Jester View Post
      I’m betting he doesn’t dent Biden — he’s got name recognition, but limited experience.
      Seriously...when is the last time that made a difference?

      Pete (thinks that since 1968, not counting wins by incumbents, the less experienced candidate has won all but one - Bush over Dukakis - of the Presidential elections)

      Comment


      • It will matter more this time. As a reaction to the Trump rollercoaster, voters are going to heavily favor somebody familiar, experienced, “traditional” - “safe”.
        For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
        If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

        "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

        Comment


        • Originally posted by dusty View Post
          It will matter more this time. As a reaction to the Trump rollercoaster, voters are going to heavily favor somebody familiar, experienced, “traditional” - “safe”.
          I sincerely hope so.

          Pete (has no such faith)

          Comment


          • Elizabeth Warren isn't going to be President. I know that's a bold statement this early, but I can't take someone seriously who does something this stupid:


            Warren: Climate Change 'Bigger Threat Than World War II

            Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) made her first campaign stop in Michigan on Tuesday, and launched a shocking $2 trillion "infrastructure investment" plan designed to address the burgeoning problem of climate change, which Warren claims is a bigger threat to the American way of life than the enemies the Allied Forces faced in World War II.
            This was going to be a controversial statement anyway, but Warren doubled (tripled?) down by delivering it within days of the 75th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. As a consequence, while the rest of the world is spending its time honoring the remaining WW2 vets in this world, Warren's comments have the net effect of downplaying the contribution of these veterans.

            Warren could easily have delivered this opinion at any other time of the year without treading on the party of the WW2 veterans, but that would generate her less press. She's counting on the hoopla surrounding WW2 and the outrage of her statement generating her a bunch of free press. But that's going to piss a lot of people off, and a lot of those people are Democrats. Old Democrats...the kind who vote. And the kind who might actually be responsive to a female candidate in her 70s.

            Pete (thinks she miscalculated)
            Last edited by Plezercruz; 06-06-2019, 09:47 AM.

            Comment


            • There's not a lot of action in the Democratic Primary scene, but a periodic recap doesn't hurt:

              https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html

              As predicted, Biden maintains the "front-runner" in the sense that his support, which hovers around 35%, exceeds the support of any other single candidate. Remember, though, that Biden is the only centerist candidate in the hunt (I suppose Kirsten Gillibrand counts, but she's got no support at all)...65% of the Democratic voters are telling us that they back one of the more rabidly leftist options. So the real question is, "what happens when some of them drop off?"

              Conventional wisdom would tell you that leftist voters will gravitate toward another leftist candidate when theirs drops out. For example, if Elizabeth Warren realizes she can't win because she went and crapped all over WW2 veterans (see last post and her dip in support in the past week), it is logical to presume that her supporters would find a similarly leftist option like Bernie Sanders or Kamela Harris.

              Keep in mind, though, that it was exactly this same "conventional wisdom" that told us Trump would never actually win the Republican primary. Surely when more "normal" candidates dropped off, their support would go to a "normal" candidate, right? Well that never happened, and the same might be true for Democrats this year. It's possible that with Biden being the only centerist in the bunch, he's already got this thing sewn up.

              Some other notes...Beto O'Rourke may already be finished. He's a "boyish looks and charm" candidate, so it's possible that some TV time during the debates will save him, but for that he needs to be polling a lot better than 4%, which might not even be good enough for the "B-stage." He does not have the sort of political machine that can raise funds and drive voters to the polls in the absence of good optics, so if he can't get on the main stage, he's finished.

              It'll be interesting to see if Pete Buttigieg has real support. He continues to hover around 7% most likely based on the unwavering support of the LGBTQ community, but as "artificial" as that support might be, he may very well find himself on the "A-stage" when debate time comes. He's doing a lot better than many of the "seasoned" politicians, like Corey Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand. Still, it's tough to see most of the candidates who are garnering support under 10% taking on Biden at this point.

              Pete (knows a lot of Democrats who would be really disappointed if Biden wins this primary)
              Last edited by Plezercruz; 06-11-2019, 11:20 AM.

              Comment


              • For months now I've been wondering how the Democrats are going to handle 30 candidates trying to get on one debate stage. The answer is now in: stupidly.

                It's not really their fault. The number of candidates is inherently unmanageable, and they have to deal with the additional pressure of being under the specter of 2016's blatant favoritism for Hillary Clinton, so their idiotic methodology might be the only one they can afford.

                So how are they deciding who gets to be on the main stage. Answer: totally randomly.

                https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...ign?verso=true

                The debates, hosted by NBC News in Miami over two nights later this month, will feature a randomized draw of 10 candidates on each debate stage. Each debate will last two hours, moderated by a diverse roster of big-name NBC anchors.
                Assuming they're actually doing this randomly, there is a 53% chance that the two frontrunners, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, end up on different stages. And while that's a bad result for the Democrats generally, it would be a lottery ticket for the rest of the field. If Sanders and Biden end up in the same group, then there will be a "good stage" featuring those two guys and a "bad stage" featuring ten randomly drawn also-rans that nobody will watch.

                Each debate will run two hours, and we can assume that a "diverse roster of big name NBC anchors" will eat up at least half an hour with their own blabbing, so you're looking at 90 minutes tops split among 10 candidates. Each candidate gets maybe 9 minutes. Maybe. The candidates in the first 2016 Republican debate, which also featured 10 candidates, got an average of 6 minutes and 50 seconds to talk. So you can expect that most of the Democrats will seek not to debate but to deliver sound bytes and campaign speeches. Recall that in 2016, the frontrunners (Donald Trump and Jeb Bush) were given twice as much time to talk as the nobodies. This is very likely NOT going to be the case for the Democrats, who again are going to bend over backward not to appear to favor any candidate.

                Pete (would not leave the debate format to pure luck if he was in charge of the DNC)
                Last edited by Plezercruz; 06-14-2019, 09:56 AM.

                Comment


                • But... would you claim you did while not being random at all as a strategy to sideline Elizabeth Warren to avoid nominating someone you felt couldn’t win?
                  They speak in bulletpointese leftist nutjob drivel. It doesn't matter. Nothing is as great a motivator as the chance to truly be free.
                  -Mr. Raceboy

                  Comment


                  • yeah why am I suspecting the random draw will feature one debate where Biden stands center stage between 9 people nobody's heard of; and another where all the most far left females making any impact will all be on the same stage catfighting?
                    For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
                    If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

                    "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

                    Comment


                    • I will be amused beyond all reason if it really is random, and all the women are on the JV stage with the gay guy.

                      Pete (can just imagine the outrage and how terribly delicious it will be)

                      Comment


                      • The lists are out. It'll be Warren alone on a stage of also-rans (probably less viewers);
                        Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, Gillibrand all day 2

                        https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/polit...020/index.html
                        For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
                        If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

                        "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

                        Comment


                        • Yeah; I’d seen that when I posted. I think theyre burying warren.
                          They speak in bulletpointese leftist nutjob drivel. It doesn't matter. Nothing is as great a motivator as the chance to truly be free.
                          -Mr. Raceboy

                          Comment


                          • In my mind Warren is the clear loser on Day 1, having drawn a seat at the kids' table. I've read some pundits who say this might be good for her, as she'd probably not hold her own against Sanders and Biden. I'm not buying that at all. If she can't handle those guys, how is she going to handle Trump? She needs to be on the main stage in the long run and this is not a result that has much upside.

                            Clear winner on Day 1 is Beto O'Rourke. By virtue of just how many of the participants on Day 1 are polling at barely perceptible levels, he'll be center stage on the first major debate of his life. This is a tremendous opportunity for him to boost his credibility and appeal. It's also a good change to make a fool of himself though, so the stakes are high. Still, he needed something to get his campaign off the ground, and this is a very real possibility for him to do so.

                            Day 2 is a more standard debate. For me the story on day 2 is Andy Yang. Is he just a crackpot off in the corner, or does he take over this thing? That could go either way. I expect Biden and Sanders, as decades-long politicians, to offer nothing substantive, stay on message, and make no mistakes. Kamela Harris would be wise to do the same for now, but might come out swinging. Pete Buttigieg has gotten to where he is on his status alone ("the gay candidate") and is going to have to start taking positions if he wants to remain relevant. Everyone else is currently a nobody...if they don't take risks, they'll stay that way.

                            Pete (is starting to wonder about the "fixing" of Warren in the bad group, after it went down exactly as Jester predicted)

                            Comment


                            • I didn't predict -- I'd already seen the lists.

                              zach(isn't that good a prognosticator)
                              They speak in bulletpointese leftist nutjob drivel. It doesn't matter. Nothing is as great a motivator as the chance to truly be free.
                              -Mr. Raceboy

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Jester View Post
                                I didn't predict -- I'd already seen the lists.

                                zach(isn't that good a prognosticator)
                                Why so modest!

                                Pete (missed that, sorry)

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X