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Professor Allan Lichtman, who predicted Trump's victory, says Democrats have to impeach to win 2020

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  • Professor Allan Lichtman, who predicted Trump's victory, says Democrats have to impeach to win 2020

    Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, was the most prominent voice predicting Donald Trump's victory in the run-up to the 2016 election. When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That's all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.)
    * * * *
    "Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."

    Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!

    Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" and as summarized byWaPo's Peter Stevenson:

    1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

    2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

    3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

    4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

    5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

    6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

    7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

    8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

    9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

    10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    Which brings me to the most intriguing -- and outside-the-box -- suggestion from my conversation with Lichtman: He believes Democrats in the House not only should be pushing to impeach Trump, but may need to in order for their nominee to win in 2020.

    Again, here's Lichtman:

    "Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020. An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key -- the scandal key -- just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination.
    More here: https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/05/28/pol...le.com%2F&rm=1
    For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
    If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

    "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

  • #2
    I wonder how consistent that treat is over the past few administrations?

    it's an interesting concept.
    "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." ĖMark Twain

    Comment


    • #3
      The biggest reason the Democrats need to impeach Trump is that it will please their voter base. The biggest reason they shouldn't impeach Trump is that the Republicans will expedite it and acquit him prior to the election.

      Pete (isn't sure which is more politically expedient)

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post
        The biggest reason the Democrats need to impeach Trump is that it will please their voter base. The biggest reason they shouldn't impeach Trump is that the Republicans will expedite it and acquit him prior to the election.

        Pete (isn't sure which is more politically expedient)
        the dems gonna wanna draaaaag it out.

        dusty (sees that plan in action already)
        For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
        If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

        "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by dusty View Post

          the dems gonna wanna draaaaag it out.

          dusty (sees that plan in action already)
          The prudent thing to do is to vote to impeach immediately before the election for maximum damage to the President. If the Democrats win the election, the likely also win the senate, but it won't matter. If by chance they lose the election, but win the senate, they can out him after the new congress is elected. If they lose to him and also lose the senate, then they've lost nothing, because it wasn't going to happen anyway.

          Pete (notes that this blueprint was recently tried and failed against Benjamin Netanyahu in Isreal, though)

          Comment


          • #6
            If Democrats impeach and are unsuccessful at it, it will bolster Trump's campaign. This is why just the threat of Hillary being guilty worked so well. She ended up being innocent. But that didn't matter during the election

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by dusty View Post

              the dems gonna wanna draaaaag it out.

              dusty (sees that plan in action already)
              Pelosi decides to inch impeachment forward today:

              Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced on Tuesday that the House would begin a formal impeachment inquiry of President Trump, saying that he had betrayed his oath of office and the nationís security in seeking to enlist a foreign power for his own political gain.
              https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/u...ent-trump.html
              For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
              If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

              "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

              Comment


              • #8
                If the Dems try to impeach Trump, it will guarantee his victory. The Dems have totally lost control of their party to the small minority loony far left.

                Steve (knows the Dems are truly a house divided which is ironic when you think about it)
                "Democracy is a form of worship. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses." H.L. Mencken

                Comment


                • #9
                  Not sure why they are rushing to impeach before the whistleblower report. Or before Trumpís phone call is known

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mr. Raceboy View Post
                    If the Dems try to impeach Trump, it will guarantee his victory. The Dems have totally lost control of their party to the small minority loony far left.

                    Steve (knows the Dems are truly a house divided which is ironic when you think about it)
                    Professor Allan Lichtman squarely disagrees with you. That's why I posted the update in this thread instead of another thread.
                    For every ailment under the sun - There is a remedy, or there is none;
                    If there be one, try to find it; If there be none, never mind it. -- Mother Goose

                    "We've always assumed that you can't bring back the dead. But it's a matter of when you pickle the cells." -- Peter Rhee

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Click image for larger version

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                      "I guess I just hate the fact there is public property at all." - Mr. Raceboy.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Is the site's styling messed up for anyone else? It's pretty much un-usable for me.
                        One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Evidently the whistle blower is CIA.
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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Plezercruz View Post

                            The prudent thing to do is to vote to impeach immediately before the election for maximum damage to the President. If the Democrats win the election, the likely also win the senate, but it won't matter. If by chance they lose the election, but win the senate, they can out him after the new congress is elected. If they lose to him and also lose the senate, then they've lost nothing, because it wasn't going to happen anyway.

                            Pete (notes that this blueprint was recently tried and failed against Benjamin Netanyahu in Isreal, though)
                            I agree with Dusty. Dems need to drag it out. A fast impeachment followed by a fast trial at the senate leads to a fast acquittal. Just as much as Trump is sure to be impeached by the house, he is sure to be acquitted by the senate. And, that would be a disaster for dems if it happens before November 2020.

                            Dan (wonders how Pete doesnít see this)
                            HFM

                            As long as there exists people with religion and a belief in God, there will never be a Libertarian state.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Anybody with a shred of integrity would resign in disgrace instead of torturing the entire country with his bullshit.
                              "I guess I just hate the fact there is public property at all." - Mr. Raceboy.

                              Comment

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