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Thread: 2018 Election Watch

  1. #71
    put-put Put Master
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    Gridlock! Woot!

    It's pretty sad that gridlock is the best we can hope for.
    "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." –Mark Twain

  2. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Jared View Post
    Gridlock! Woot!

    It's pretty sad that gridlock is the best we can hope for.
    Gridlock is always the best we can hope for.

    Pete (thinks that in the absence of gridlock, politicians do things)

  3. #73
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/u...democrats.html

    Minnesota Democrats Targeted in Ads Citing Allegations Against Keith Ellison

    A conservative super PAC launched an ad campaign on Monday that uses domestic abuse allegations against Representative Keith Ellison, the Democratic nominee for attorney general in Minnesota, to attack other members of his party running for office in the state.

    The ad, titled “Ashamed,” has been tailored to target several Democrats running for the House of Representatives and chastises them for not calling on Mr. Ellison, who is also the deputy chairman of the Democratic National Committee, to drop out of the race.

    “Joe Radinovich is standing by Keith Ellison,” says one version of the ad, edited to focus on Mr. Radinovich, a former state representative running in Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District. “Backing Ellison instead of believing his victim? Joe Radinovich should be ashamed.”
    I post this here because it has potential to broaden in scope. Keith Ellison is a major player in the Democratic party, and narrowly lost the DNC chair position to establishment Democrat Tom Perez last year, after which Perez ousted Ellison and Bernie Sanders supporters from the DNC, causing further dissent in the party: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017...z-dnc-shake-up. As an olive branch, Perez took Ellison as his "deputy chairman," a position with little or no meaning other than symbolically trying to appease the Sanders/Ellison branch of the party.

    So now Ellison, ostensibly the #2 man in the Democratic party, is himself the target of the #metoo movement, accused of domestic violence by an ex-girlfriend (actually, by her son, though she has backed him up) and the hardcore left is rising to his defense, because he's their guy. The hypocrisy of this isn't lost on anyone, including most notably Republicans, who are exploiting it in Minnesota already. But he's considered a "co-chairman" of the Democratic party, and it's only a matter of time before the Republicans latch on to that.

    For Tom Perez, this is an impossible situation. Privately, I'm sure he'd just love it if Keith Ellison was disgraced into oblivion and never challenged him again, but if he even hints at such a motive, the Hillary/Sanders rift will blow wide open. On the other hand, his failure to aggressively pursue the allegations against Ellison not only provide fodder for the Republicans, but also risks alienating some of the more consistent Democrats, particularly women who see a man covering for another man right in the party that's supposed to be against such things. So for now, Perez is just playing dumb and not really saying anything:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.5b6e08f29c1e

    Democrats avoid abuse allegations against party leader

    DNC Chairman Tom Perez addressed the situation directly only when pressed by reporters as he campaigned Wednesday in Georgia.

    The DNC boss said he takes “very seriously” any accusation of domestic abuse, but downplayed the political fallout.

    “Democrats have been winning everywhere,” Perez said. “That, I think, continues.”
    For his part, Keith Ellison keeps making it worse. He has categorically denied the allegations, which is a really bad position to take if the alleged video is ever released.

    And of course, politics is politics, so many of Ellison's Democratic enemies are pouncing upon the story, including the people he recently beat in a primary to run for Minnesota Attorney general, one of whom has called for a police investigation.

    If that video surfaces between now and election day, all bets are off as to how much this hurts Democrats.

    Pete (first heard about this on the radio this morning, but it's about a week-old story)
    Last edited by Plezercruz; 08-21-2018 at 09:35 AM.

  4. #74

    Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.be176afa1fa5

    Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last?

    Growth in this sector is occurring at the fastest rate since 1984.

    Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns and rural areas that are strong supporters of President Trump ahead of November's midterm elections.

    Jobs in goods-producing industries — mining, construction and manufacturing — grew 3.3 percent in the year preceding July, the best rate since 1984, according to a Washington Post analysis.

    Blue-collar jobs, long a small and shrinking part of the U.S. economy, are now growing at a faster clip than those in the nation's much larger service economy. Many factors collided to produce the blue-collar boom. Some are linked to short-term boom-and-bust cycles, but others may endure.

    The rapid hiring in blue-collar sectors is delivering benefits to areas that turned out heavily for Trump in the 2016 election, according to the Brookings Institution, a shift from earlier in this expansion, when large and midsize cities experienced most of the gains.
    I post this because everyone, myself included, is expecting huge gains for the Democrats in November. But, just as I did in 2016, I'm hedging. If the Republicans survive, this might be why.

    We know two things about blue collar workers in 2016. First, we know that blue-collar workers swung heavily and unexpectedly for Trump, in part because lifelong Democrat workers simply didn't show up to vote. Second, we know that for whatever reason, polling summarily failed to notice that it was going to happen. They simply weren't able to reach this voting bloc.

    2018 is being billed as the referendum on Trump, and if that's the main issue, the Democrats will probably win big. But amid the turmoil and preposterousness emanating from the White House these days, one simple data point is being overlooked: America is really doing quite well.

    For the Republicans to do well in 2018, the rural and small town workers who voted Trump into office in 2016 have to turn out, and they probably have to bring those Democrat friends who didn't vote in 2016 with them to vote for Trump. That's a real longshot, but it's not impossible.

    The blue wave we're expecting is fueled by activists, but regular people outnumber activists about 4 to 1. They typically don't turn out in midterm election years. If they do, the Republicans actually have a chance.

    Pete (isn't holding his breath)

  5. #75
    If polling is to be believed, Ted Cruz is in real trouble in Texas:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ruz-really-in/
    How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In?

    A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue? Normally, this would be the point where we lecture everyone about the dangers of putting too much stock in one poll. But this poll wasn’t even much of an outlier — it came on the heels of a few others that also show O’Rourke within a few points of Cruz. That’s an awfully close race for a state that President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. Is it time to start betting on a Democrat in Texas?


    Pete (wonders if we'll actually see a Democratic senator from Texas)

  6. #76
    put-put Put Master
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    Why do both of those names sound like they were invented by a "multi-ethnic name generator"?
    "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." –Mark Twain

  7. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Jared View Post
    Why do both of those names sound like they were invented by a "multi-ethnic name generator"?
    Because politicians lie in all things they do. Nobody would vote for Rafael Edward or Robert Francis, so they reimagine themselves as Ted and Beto.

    Pete (isn't sure how well "Beto" works though, or even how it's pronounced)

  8. #78
    The senate race down here is going to be really close. I think Scott is going to beat Nelson.

  9. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by Plezercruz View Post
    If polling is to be believed, Ted Cruz is in real trouble in Texas:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ruz-really-in/

    Pete (wonders if we'll actually see a Democratic senator from Texas)
    My wife and I have each received multiple texts from the Beto O'Rourke campaign asking who we're voting for. Here in Austin, I see lots of "Beto" signs in front yards.
    One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.

  10. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Plezercruz View Post
    Because politicians lie in all things they do. Nobody would vote for Rafael Edward or Robert Francis, so they reimagine themselves as Ted and Beto.

    Pete (isn't sure how well "Beto" works though, or even how it's pronounced)
    I was listening to Bill Press this morning. He was talking to some expert on Texas and Beto O'Rourke came up. Press asked, "Isn't he half latino?"

    "No. No way" replied the guest. "Super Irish. His mom is Melissa and his dad is Patrick O'Rourke. They're as Irish as you can get."

    Press pressed. "Well you would think with a name like Beto..."

    The guest interrupted, "Your right, and he claims it's a childhood nickname. It plays well in Latino circles though, and the Republicans are accusing him of making up the name trying to trick Latinos into thinking he is one. But he's not. Republicans won't call him Beto...they always refer to him as "Robert Francis O'Rourke" in their media."

    Pete (paraphrased those snippets from memory)

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