2008 Presidential Election Watch

[longbowe]

Finally I could give Pete the rep he deserves!

[Plezercruz]

Must be getting close to election time!!

First some meaningless state polls:

President - Alaska
Obama - 38%
McCain - 53%
Research 2000

President - Alabama
Obama - 34%
McCain - 64%
SurveyUSA

President - Connecticut
Obama - 53%
McCain - 41%
Rasmussen

President - Georgia
Obama - 41%
McCain - 57%
SurveyUSA

President - Georgia
Obama - 43%
McCain - 51%
Insider Advantage

President - Georgia
Obama - 43%
McCain - 54%
Rasmussen

President - Illinois
Obama - 53%
McCain - 37%
U. of Wisconsin

President - Nebraska
Obama - 34%
McCain - 60%
ARG

President - New Jersey
Obama - 55%
McCain - 42%
Rasmussen

President - Oregon
Obama - 50%
McCain - 40%
Davis Hibbitts Midghall

President - Vermont
Obama - 60%
McCain - 36%
Rasmussen

Some comments on the above:

First, remember those preposterous polls out of Illinois and Oregon the past few days. These polls are more on target, with Obama leading comfortably. Ordinarily you expect such erratic polling from the Universities or SurveyUSA, but those were ARG and Rasmussen respectively, and typically they get it right. These numbers fit the conventional wisdom a lot more.


Polls favoring McCain:

President - South Carolina
Obama - 37%
McCain - 59%
ARG

President - Colorado
Obama - 45%
McCain - 44%
Hotline/Financial Dynamics

President - Florida
Obama - 45%
McCain - 51%
SurveyUSA

President - Iowa
Obama - 45%
McCain - 45%
U. of Wisconsin

President - Indiana
Obama - 43%
McCain - 47%
U. of Wisconsin

President - Michigan
Obama - 48%
McCain - 44%
U. of Wisconsin

President - Pennsylvania
Obama - 45%
McCain - 45%
U. of Wisconsin

President - Minnesota
Obama - 47%
McCain - 45%
U. of Wisconsin

President - New Hampshire
Obama - 45%
McCain - 48%
ARG

President - Virginia
Obama - 41%
McCain - 48%
Hotline/Financial Dynamics

President - Wisconsin
Obama - 45%
McCain - 44%
U. of Wisconsin

President - Wisconsin
Obama - 49%
McCain - 45%
Opinion Research

These are polls in which McCain does a lot better than the national average in. While McCain loses in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and is tied in Iowa, the general poll consensus shows him losing these states to Obama...these polls show a closer race than the average.


Polls favoring Obama:

President - Florida
Obama - 44%
McCain - 44%
Hotline/Financial Dynamics

President - Florida
Obama - 46%
McCain - 46%
ARG

President - New Mexico
Obama - 49%
McCain - 42%
Hotline/Financial Dynamics

President - Ohio
Obama - 41%
McCain - 42%
Hotline/Financial Dynamics

President - Ohio
Obama - 46%
McCain - 45%
U. of Wisconsin

I post the polls this way to highlight that U of Wisconsin and Hotline/Financial Dynamics (a new pollster I’ve never seen before) are not apparently biased one way or the other. They do, however, seem to have accuracy problems, as some of their polls deviate greatly from the averages.


Finally:

President - Colorado
Obama - 51%
McCain - 41%
Insider Advantage

President - Virginia
Obama - 46%
McCain - 48%
Insider Advantage

No surprise here. Insider advantage has always been a Democratic stooge pollster.

Pete (updates the pollwatch)

[Plezercruz]

I am going to make a bit of a prediction here. Some of you will deride it as McCain favortism. Others of you will cheer it because you want McCain to win. But this is how I see things shaking down...

I see McCain doing far better in this election than most people expect.

Here's why:

First, the pollsters:

There are approximately a half dozen pollsters in this year's election cycle who routinely post pro-Obama polling. They are: PPP, Opinion Research, Research 2000, Quinnepiac University, Insider Advantage, and Field Polling.

There are a few pollsters that are brazenly pro-Republican. They are: Strategic Vision, Hotline, Luntz polling, Wall Street Journal, and others.

There are two pollsters whose findings are just erratic and absurd, Zogby and SurveyUSA. Many university polls fall in this group too.

Finally, there's the gold standard...the few you can trust: Rasmussen, ARG, Mason-Dixon, and Gallup/USA today. Rasmussen tends to poll slightly pro-Republican, the other three historically slightly pro-Democrat, but they're all reliably accurate.

Here's the rub: you almost NEVER see one of the blatantly pro-Republican pollsters in the news while the outlandishly pro-Democrat and the erratic pollsters are in the news constantly.

I've been keeping my election watch here and I see a neck-and-neck race. See the map above. But when I log onto the TV news, I see Obama with 300 electoral votes on most pundits' maps. I see them list Florida and Ohio as Obama states when they're clearly not, unless you look at the polls of that first group. I even see Obama winning Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina on some of their maps.

This is how the typical TV election board looks:



If you eliminate the leaners (lighter colored) that means Obama has a 201-169 lead going into the swing states. It's almost a sure win for Obama.

Here is my map:



Note that the battlegrounds are the midwest and the southwest, not the traditional Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. I suspect that Ohio is not really in play, but I leave it as a tossup because the polls do support that conclusion. Also note that I'm not playing favorites...I've darkened a lot of states for Obama that I don't think are in play based on the polling, such as Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.

Omitting the close states, you're looking at only a 242 to 240 advantage for Obama, and it's a tossup race, especially since Michigan is leaning hard for Obama and Ohio is leaning hard for McCain (which would result in a 260-259 lead for McCain with 3 small states to go).

Because of this, I fully expect a great deal of public outcry when the election happens. I think that McCain is about 50% likely to win even if racism isn't a factor, and that it's going to be a lot closer than anyone thinks. But if he does win, and people saw pre-election polls "heavily favoring Obama" and exit polls "heavily favoring Obama," there will be mass outcry. It might happen even if Obama wins a narrow victory.

I have no idea why the press is willing to promote SurveyUSA and Zogby polling. Both of them were COMPLETELY off (in both directions in almost every state) in the last election, and should be dismissed summarily. Further, I have no idea why anybody would consider Quinnepiac University polling...but they do. This has led to an expectation of a huge Obama win. It's not likely to go that way.

This is going to be a close election with the swing states being Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio. Traditional swing states Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Missouri really aren't this year. But the media (both TV and radio) are focusing on them.

That's why I expect a lot of people to act really surprised when the election happened, even though the data was there. Even without the data, they should be able to predict that this election is not going to be decided along the same lines that the last few were, because the candidates are very different.

Pete (could be very wrong, and things do change, but sees it this way at this point)

[WashUJon]

Even with all the blame on Republicans for the economic crisis right now?

[Plezercruz]

Well, I make predictions, but I don't purport to see the future. I go by what I see in the polls NOW and by prevailing trends. It's entirely possible the polls will shift based on this crisis, but it's more fun to predict without knowing than to just say, "I don't know."

Pete (at one time claimed 20% chance of Obama win followed by 20% chance of McCain win, and now finds himself at 50%/50%)

[buzzardmountain]

Very interesting analysis Pete......


This was in the Washington Times this morning........



http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/s...lege-doomsday/

[Plezercruz]

The times seems to have a similar map to mine.

I've been saying for some time now that Obama's "50-state plan" is the most disastrous decision he's made this campaign. Opening up offices in all 50 states and campaigning hard in all 50 states was a plan he came up with when he thought he'd have a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 fundraising advantage, but he's come up short and McCain has been surprisingly successful in fundraising. The net result is that Obama has wasted money on advertising in meaningless states like Texas and Nebraska, and McCain has been able to outspend him in critical swing states.

Word comes today that Obama is abandoning his 50-state plan. They've already closed 2 offices (Alaska, North Dakota) and is planning to focus on 10 to 12 key states...which is pretty much a traditional campaign strategy. Obama spent tons of money in Alaska and Georgia with barely a blip on the polls there. If he loses this election, a major reason will be that he wasted money on states he had no chance of winning.

Pete (applauds him for not being stubborn and continuing to waste his war chest)

[Plezercruz]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080922...afp/usvotepoll

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The financial turmoil that has rocked global markets appears to be benefiting US presidential hopeful Barack Obama, according to a new poll released Monday that finds the Democratic candidate pulling ahead of his Republican opponent John McCain with a 51 percent to 46 percent lead.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll also finds that by a two-to-one margin Americans blame Republicans for the current financial crisis.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters say Republicans are more responsible for the state of the economy, compared to 24 percent of registered voters who say Democrats are more responsible.

Obama's five-point lead over McCain stands in contrast to the previous CNN/Opinion Research survey that had the candidates tied at 48 percent each, although Obama's advantage lies within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The survey also indicates that more Americans think Obama would better handle the economy. The democratic candidate holds a 10-point lead over McCain.

Obama made gains among key constituencies that were once seen as part of McCain's base: men and seniors.

CNN's poll of polls, which combines numerous local and national polling data, found that 49 percent of registered voters favor Obama, compared with 44 percent for McCain.

"The economy has always been considered John McCain's Achilles' heel, and the CNN poll of polls started to show an Obama edge in the middle of last week -- just as the financial crisis began to hit home for many Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The survey also indicates that one of Obama's main campaign messages -- that McCain represents "more of the same" policies of the incumbent Bush administration -- is registering with voters.

Fifty-seven percent of Americans contacted for the survey think McCain, if elected, will "mostly carry out the policies" of President George W. Bush, up three percentage points from the previous poll.

The poll also suggests Obama has recaptured the mantle of "change," a campaign slogan for the Obama camp for over two years, adopted by McCain in the weeks since adding Alaska governor Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket in early September.

Obama holds a 14 point lead over McCain when voters consider which candidate would be more likely to bring change to the White House.

The survey finds that 35 percent of those questioned have an unfavorable opinion of Palin -- an eight point jump from the last CNN poll.

"Change has always been Obama's strong suit, but McCain and Palin clearly made inroads into that issue during the GOP convention," said Holland.

"Palin, in particular, was seen as an agent of change when she made her first appearance on the national stage. That may be changing now."

The poll results come out four days before Obama and McCain meet in Oxford, Mississippi for the first of three presidential debates.

Strong viewing figures are expected for the debates, after nearly 40 million Americans tuned in for both the Democrat and Republican convention speeches.

The poll suggests the debates could be critical for swaying opinions, with 14 percent of voters saying they have yet to make up their minds on who to vote for.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, conducted September 19 through September 21, interviewed 1,020 Americans, including 909 registered voters and 697 likely voters.

The poll was run by Opinion Research, which is one of the outfits that likes to put out preposterously pro-Democratic polls. However, even when you have a leaner pollster like this, CHANGES in the polling can be significant. Tracking those, it would appear that despite the fact that Obama is in agreement with Bernanke and Paulson and McCain says he's against them, Obama is seen as the better option by many for dealing with this economic situation.

Pete (thinks that was inevitable)

[Plezercruz]

Another pollhappy day. From now on I will be bolding the pollsters on the Pete-approved pollster list:

President - Florida - Rasmussen
Obama 46%
McCain 51%

President - Georgia - ARG
Obama 39%
McCain 57%

President - Michigan - Rasmussen
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

President - Minnesota - Rasmussen
Obama 52%
McCain 44%

President - North Carolina - Rasmussen
Obama 47%
McCain 50%

President - New Hampshire - University of New Hampshire
Obama 45%
McCain 47%

President - New Jersey - ARG
Obama 51%
McCain 42%

President - Nevada - Suffolk University
Obama 45%
McCain 46%

President - Ohio - Rasmussen
Obama 46%
McCain 50%

President - Pennsylvania - Mason-Dixon
Obama 46%
McCain 44%

President - Pennsylvania - Rasumssen
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

President - Rhode Island - Brown University
Obama 47%
McCain 34%

President - South Dakota - ARG
Obama 39%
McCain 55%

President - Virginia - Rasmussein
Obama 48%
McCain 50%

President - Virginia - Washington Post
Obama 49%
McCain 46%

President - Virginia - SurveyUSA
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

President - Wisconsin - ARG
Obama 50%
Mccain 45%

I didn't believe it before, but it looks now that Pennsylvania really is closer than I thought. Three of the reputable pollsters now have it within 3 points. I still can't believe that McCain can win Pennsylvania, any more than I can believe that Obama will win Virginia...but I might actually be wrong on both counts.

Pete (will watch those states closely)

[Plezercruz]

For those of you who are interested in the Al Franken watch:

US SENATE - MINNESOTA (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP)
Norm Coleman (R-inc) 49%
Al Franken (D) 42%

I don't know what to think about this poll. Quinnipiac is usually left leaning and erratic. Wall Street Journal polls are usually consistent but pro-Republican. The Washington Post is usually equally consistent but pro-Democrat.

Apparently the 3 conducted a poll together...your guess is as good as mine.

Pete (considers this an unholy triumverate)